Why are political scientists increasingly skeptical of polls?
I am writing an essay (250 words), and I need to know why political scientists are skeptical of polls that ask people to identify themselves as liberal or conservative.
Political and other social scientists are not skeptical of the polls themselves (I am a social scientist, BTW, though in sociology). That’s assuming the poll is done properly. Not all are–and anyone with any sense checks the methodology of any poll.
Here’s the problem. The concepts )of liberal or conservative) are not absolutes. Over time, they change. At some periods such concepts are stable–in which case pretty much everyone agrees on the definition and so when people answer the question you’ll get a reliable answer.
At other times, such concepts are redefined by the culture. When that is happening, not everyone uses the same definition, so you’ll get answers that aren’t consistent.
That’s what is happening now. What the terms used to mean is breaking down, and "liberal" or "conservative" means different things to different people. For example, my mother regards herself as a conservative–but is viewed as a liberal by members of the "conservative Christian" core of Republicans.
Point is–it’s not the polls that are the problem. It’s that what they are trying to measure is changing into something else. 10-20 years from now, the terms will be stable again–but they will mean different things than they did in the past–or today.
April 1st, 2010 at 9:58 pm
People aren’t completely one or the other, so it’s not a particularly helpful label.
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April 1st, 2010 at 10:17 pm
Anyone with an ounce of intelligence is skeptical of polls, you don’t need to be a scientist, political or otherwise. Ask yourself this……when you are given a poll question, how often would you have a different answer than the ones they list. Polls are generally fixed when written to lead you to a conclusion that they are wanting you to go towards.
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April 1st, 2010 at 10:52 pm
The ‘point’ of most polls is to ‘massage’ the data until you get the answer you want. That way you sway the masses that use the biased data to the direction you wish them to follow. Like voting for 0 without checking his history. http://www.theobamafile.com/
When you have your info source identified, lib / con, you angle your questions to get the answer you want. Why else would they ask your political leaning?
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April 1st, 2010 at 11:30 pm
I don’t know that they are. I think political scientists and others whose work brings them into contact with lots of polls and pollsters have become more discriminating. That is, they know more about how legitimate polls SHOULD be conducted and are more likely to question methodology and analysis.
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April 1st, 2010 at 11:50 pm
Political and other social scientists are not skeptical of the polls themselves (I am a social scientist, BTW, though in sociology). That’s assuming the poll is done properly. Not all are–and anyone with any sense checks the methodology of any poll.
Here’s the problem. The concepts )of liberal or conservative) are not absolutes. Over time, they change. At some periods such concepts are stable–in which case pretty much everyone agrees on the definition and so when people answer the question you’ll get a reliable answer.
At other times, such concepts are redefined by the culture. When that is happening, not everyone uses the same definition, so you’ll get answers that aren’t consistent.
That’s what is happening now. What the terms used to mean is breaking down, and "liberal" or "conservative" means different things to different people. For example, my mother regards herself as a conservative–but is viewed as a liberal by members of the "conservative Christian" core of Republicans.
Point is–it’s not the polls that are the problem. It’s that what they are trying to measure is changing into something else. 10-20 years from now, the terms will be stable again–but they will mean different things than they did in the past–or today.
References :