This morning, why did Fox and Friends run a segment on why the political polls are wrong?
As I channel surfed for Star Trek I stumbled upon Fox News. They were running a segment on why all of the polling data is wrong. Why?
Because there’s a good chance they are. I mean how can you poll a couple thousand people in a selected area and think it actually represents the views of 300 million?
March 5th, 2010 at 4:14 am
they were getting paid by the RNC to do so……
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March 5th, 2010 at 4:49 am
Because Mccain is sinking like the Titanic.
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March 5th, 2010 at 5:10 am
Because they don’t want to believe Obama is winning by so much…its called delusion.
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March 5th, 2010 at 5:34 am
Best thing to do is wait until election day then see which polls were closest. Somewhere out on the vast internet there must be some historical data on which polls were most accurate for other elections.
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March 5th, 2010 at 6:24 am
There’s no reason to believe that the polls are reliable. They don’t even make an effort to be reliable.
Haven’t you noticed that all the national polls claim to be nationally reliable, they all have 2-5 points margin of error, but they differ by as many as 10 or 11 points? SOME of them have to be wrong, or all of them.
For at least 28 years, they have knowingly overpolled democrats. That’s why several presidential elections tipped in favor of the democrat nominee right up to the last day, despite the republican winning. This was true of Bush/Kerry, Bush/Gore, and the worst was Carter/Reagan.
A reliable pole would look like this:
300 or more people polled in each of 150 cities.
Total of 45,000 or more polled.
No one polls more than 3000 total, and no one polls in more than two or three cities. If they set up shop in blue states, what does that tell you? They’re polling liberals. Naturally, they’ll favor Obama. It’s amazing McCain was ever ahead.
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March 5th, 2010 at 6:41 am
Wouldn’t you, if the polls said your guy was losing? Do you think they’d be challenging the polls if their guy was ahead? Not likely…
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March 5th, 2010 at 7:22 am
All polling data is off to a certain extent. Let’s not forget that Kerry was ahead of Bush by more than 10 points at this point in 2004.
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March 5th, 2010 at 7:48 am
Because all polls are wrong by nature. They are selective; the questions that are asked – the accuracy of the pollster…..the pool with which to extract that poll.
It’s not complicated – - polls are an assumption.
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March 5th, 2010 at 7:55 am
Simple, because the polls are in Senator Obama’s favor.
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March 5th, 2010 at 8:00 am
Because they are bad representations of the people who actually vote? They were wrong in 2004. They were wrong in 2000. They’ve been wrong more in recent years than they’ve been right. Can you really not see that?
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March 5th, 2010 at 8:23 am
Because the AP came out with a poll that was drastically different than the rest of the polls. They decided to run with that data rather than the other polls. But I suspect none of the polls are right and that we will only find out who’s voting for whom on election day.
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March 5th, 2010 at 8:47 am
because anything that doesnt agree with fox is liberal media and has a socialist agenda and wants obama to win.
the reality is though that they cant accept the truth
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March 5th, 2010 at 9:32 am
Because there’s a good chance they are. I mean how can you poll a couple thousand people in a selected area and think it actually represents the views of 300 million?
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March 5th, 2010 at 10:22 am
Because 3 INDEPENDENT polls show the race to be a toss up…while the Liberal slanted polls were bragging that Obama had a 10 point lead to try and dissuade GOP voters into thinking it is over…it isn’t…between the REAL polls and the Bradley effect….Obama is in for a surprise…..We the Gun toting and Bible hugging middle class are going to send him a message from the middle class…..WE DO NOT WANT A ANTI-US SOCIALIST IN THE WHITE HOUSE
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March 5th, 2010 at 10:50 am
Because they want the right to win no matter how much it hurts us or the nation.
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March 5th, 2010 at 11:34 am
Listen, the only poll I find worth while is the odds makers in Vegas, the rest might have the mike on TV and radio but it is an imperfect guessing game not unlike making book on horse race. WHY? Well, we all want some definitive voice telling us that "THIS is how it’s going"
Baloney! Not arguing with the fact the the Senator from Illinois will probably win but for me the polls have Ziltch to do with it.
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March 5th, 2010 at 11:43 am
Because they want you to keep watching! They do not want you to see that it is a landslide victory that McCain can not possibly come back from because then you will stop watching. Its all about the ratings and keeping you watching! Its kinda like a Tyson fight of old that ends in the first round during a pay per view event. What do they have to show you for the next 11 rounds worth of paid for time, other than replays and stupid commentary?
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March 5th, 2010 at 12:11 pm
Because if the polls are right then they are in the minority meaning they are wrong and by extension their bubble world disintegrates.
It’s quite a fascinating psychosis, when one reality crumbles they go ahead and create another one.
Would make an interesting paper about wilful ignorance.
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March 5th, 2010 at 12:33 pm
PROPAGANDA
Repukes know all is lost. We are like Romans. We are slaves to only one master, and that’s victory. Obama is winning so they want to stop the defections.
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March 5th, 2010 at 12:46 pm
hahaha… the answers on here…
has anyone ever taken a polling class? ever?
it’s not an exact science… and it’s not designed to be one…
but there’s a reason that McCain changes his strategy when he’s down 11 points…
because he knows that they mean something…
we all know they aren’t 100 percent… but it’s not just nonsense to say they aren’t accurate…
and they do change.. sometimes very quickly…
I should look up the story for a good laugh…
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March 5th, 2010 at 12:54 pm
fox news is the only cable news that reveils the results of all the polls and says also that polls are not always reliable , that is the truth! they arent. last night i watched cbs, and the only poll they showed was the new york times poll. which was in favor of Obama by 11 points. in some states yes that is true, but that part they didnt tell you, ( the in some states part) fox reports, the times, rasmussien , gallop and all them. i have watched all channels, and you will get different polls on nbc, cbs, and cnn, on fox they show the results of all of them! that is a fact. and i saw that same thing you just quoted and they didnt say ALL polling data was wrong, what they said was you cant take All polls as right, there is a difference. some of them are wrong, ! because day to day the polls change.
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March 5th, 2010 at 1:28 pm
Because some of the polls are clearly wrong.
The Newsweek poll is waaaay out in left field with Obama up 12 but they’re so far left leaning that they’re likely over-sampling Democrats.
Obama cheerleaders NYT (+13) and WashPost (+9) are probably "polling to the result" as well but it makes them feel good.
In 2004, Zogby predicted at 7 PM on election night that Kerry would win with 312 electoral votes so we might question their methodology plus John Zogby is a committed Democrat. He’s got Obama up 10.
In 2004 the IBD/TIPP poll was within 1/100 of a percentage point, and they have the race at +4. They were the CLOSEST of all the polls.
Gallup Traditional usually comes very close and they’re at +5.
The variable this year is that few people are able to say with certainty who are "Likely Voters."
The number of people who are unwilling to speak to pollsters is higher than it has ever been.
More than 50%, even as high as 60%, according to some pollsters, are refusing to speak to the survey-takers.
Those who are willing to take the survey tend to be higher income, educated voters who may disproportionately lean toward Obama.
This may be skewing the results.
Private polling by BOTH campaigns is reportedly showing the race MUCH closer than the public polls.
FOX is being HONEST and informative, in addition to fair and balanced.
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