Mike Pence for President 2008

It depends on how the question is phrased, you can get almost any answer you want if you ask it the way you want it to be answered.

I am writing an essay (250 words), and I need to know why political scientists are skeptical of polls that ask people to identify themselves as liberal or conservative.

Political and other social scientists are not skeptical of the polls themselves (I am a social scientist, BTW, though in sociology). That’s assuming the poll is done properly. Not all are–and anyone with any sense checks the methodology of any poll.

Here’s the problem. The concepts )of liberal or conservative) are not absolutes. Over time, they change. At some periods such concepts are stable–in which case pretty much everyone agrees on the definition and so when people answer the question you’ll get a reliable answer.

At other times, such concepts are redefined by the culture. When that is happening, not everyone uses the same definition, so you’ll get answers that aren’t consistent.

That’s what is happening now. What the terms used to mean is breaking down, and "liberal" or "conservative" means different things to different people. For example, my mother regards herself as a conservative–but is viewed as a liberal by members of the "conservative Christian" core of Republicans.

Point is–it’s not the polls that are the problem. It’s that what they are trying to measure is changing into something else. 10-20 years from now, the terms will be stable again–but they will mean different things than they did in the past–or today.

It seems like a new poll comes out every day with different numbers. they say they ask registered voters but i’ve never been asked nor do i know anybody that has. i’m just curious as to who does it.

Professional pollsters do it, and they use a scientific method whereby they can get a good picture of America by asking a thousand people or so.

Therefore, it is statistically unlikely that most of us would personally know someone who has been polled.

What if these "random" people just by coincidence happen to favor one party or another? Wouldn’t these polls then be considered inaccurate? If that is the case then why have a poll given the risk of inaccurate information? Why poll 1,000 people in a country of 30,000,000?

Because they work. If done well, they are highly accurate. Political campaign ads are based on the same kind of polling data, so politicians who say they do not believe in polls, or use them, are living because they use the same methods and techniques almost daily.

Look at all the advertising based on data mining and marketing analysis. If you could not predict how large numbers of people will behave based on a sample of that population there would be no such thing as advertisements and commercials because they would not be effective. However, we are surrounded by it because it works. It works so well in fact, that companies like amazon.com will not even reveal how many mathematicians they employ, let alone what they are working on.

Sampling is a complex issue itself and there are different methods and strategies that can be applied depending on the information you want to gather.

If politicians act based on opinion polls, maybe that’s a good thing .

but if the media and other pollsters manipulate and distort polls, then it’s not a good thing. It’s basically unelected slimeballs taking over our government.

Which is it?

Hinder. Poll questions sound like "Are you in favor of Credit Card Reform?" without any explanation of the details.

Who is not in favor of education? They could be calling from the Union who want to double their pensions and salaries. It’s a joke.

Source: Political Science Major who was polled on the phone. It was designed for a 4th grade level.

determined to vote for the candidate of your choice.

More determined. Polls are meaningless unless the votes back it up.

How do you get on the Gallup polling list?

Have a listed public telephone number, not on a "do not call" list, and live in a diverse area of the US.

If so, does McCain still have a chance in this election or is it too far out of reach at this stage?
Second part of my question. Since the polls have Obama up by as many as 6 points is that really that big of challenge to overcome?

LOL Every McCain Supporter on this site was swearing by them 1 month ago.

Everybody doesn’t. That’s why polls are meaningless.

The only numbers that will matter are those on November 4th.

Go out and make your voice heard then.

Can political polls be believed, since they all are reporting different numbers?

Polls are a complete farce designed to try and persuade people to vote a certain way. They do this by making people believe their is no hope in their candidate.